Trump’s Big Bill Makes Progress Amid Partisan Spat and Fiscal Pressures

Republicans pushed through a far-reaching legislative package including deep tax cuts and increased levels of border security in a unusual Sunday evening session. The bill, criticized by some as the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act,” moved beyond an initial hurdle with a 17-16 vote in the House Budget Committee, paving the way for more robust debate on the Hill later this week.

The bill is the latest GOP attempt to cement former President Donald Trump’s economic legacy ahead of the next elections. The bill presents a permanent extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and presents additional tax benefits for the working class that include exemptions on car loan interest payments, tips, and overtime pay. The bill also contains massive defense and border enforcement appropriations, reflecting Republican priorities regarding national security and control of immigration.

House Speaker Mike Johnson led the direction of shepherding the bill back from the brink of annihilation after it had been stalled just days before. Conservative lawmakers troubled by adding to the national debt had previously halted its momentum with calls for equivalence among new spending and postponed saving measures. Over the weekend’s closed-door sessions, however, Johnson managed to negotiate a reprieve from members of opposition parties. While Johnson described the changes as “minor modifications,” they were sufficient to cause major fiscal conservatives to vote “present” rather than “no,” allowing the bill to move forward.

Still, the bill is not in its final form. Committee Chair Rep. Jodey Arrington confirmed that “deliberations continue,” and there will be more amendments before the bill comes to the full House floor for a vote. Republicans are planning the bill for movement to the floor at some point before the end of the week despite ongoing uncertainty and party intraparty negotiations.

Perhaps most objectionable about the bill is the timing of when it would mandate work on Medicaid beneficiaries. As written, the mandates would not go into effect until 2029, which is seen as far enough in the future that it will have no meaningful budgetary impact, according to critics. Texas Rep. Chip Roy, a top Republican doubter, expressed anger at what he maintains is fiscal wastefulness: “We are writing checks that we can’t cover, and our kids are going to end up paying the bill.” Even so, he did ultimately permit the bill to move forward, but warned that comprehensive reforms remain necessary.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a respected nonpartisan think tank, estimates that the package could add approximately $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. That projection has fueled criticism not only from Democrats but also from budget-conscious Republicans who worry about America’s long-term fiscal health. Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina highlighted a recent downgrade in the country’s credit rating as a reason to press for deeper cuts.

On the Democratic side, opposition has been spirited. The bill was described as a “beautiful betrayal” by Rep. Pramila Jayapal, reminding of the message the bill sends that the legislation favors tax breaks for the affluent while thwarting aid mechanisms for working-class Americans. Democrat Rep. Jim Clyburn said that the budget filed loads the burden of fiscal responsibility on the shoulders of middle-class and lower-class citizens while the affluent continue to enjoy bountiful tax breaks.

The second area of disagreement is the threatened elimination of some green energy tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act. The incentives, designed to drive sustainable use of energy, are now being attacked as part of the broader reversal of Democratic climate initiatives by Republicans. Roy disparaged the subsidies as part of the “green new scam,” which elicited angry condemnation from environmentalists and Democratic lawmakers.

The bill also attempts to solve a longstanding complaint of legislators from high-tax states like New York. Currently, the state and local tax (SALT) deduction is capped at $10,000, essentially hurting high-tax state residents. The GOP bill would increase the cap threefold to $30,000 for joint filers with incomes up to $400,000. New York Republicans do demand even larger allowances, however, and they suggest ceilings of up to $124,000 for couples filing together. Those demands could complicate endgame negotiating.

Although Johnson has wished for the Senate to leave only minor changes, everyone else thinks extra amendments are a certainty. If the House passes the bill this week, it will be sent to the Senate, where further debate and rewriting are to be expected. Given the slim margins and tangled political landscape, the final bill is anyone’s guess.

Briefly put, while as important as Sunday’s parliamentary win was for House Republicans, “Trump’s big bill” still has far to go. Budget deficit worries, as well as Medicaid and SALT deduction overhauls, remain in the balance, and with fierce Democratic opposition, making its way through will involve delicate juggling. Speaker Johnson and the willingness of both fiscal hawks and moderate Republicans to make concessions will determine whether the bill ever becomes law or gets added to the growing roster of bogged-down legislative proposals in a polarized Congress.