Gas Price Cycling in Michigan: Learn How to Time Your Fill-Ups and Save Money at the Pump

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. – As a Michigander, you know that it’s as if gas prices are engaging in a never-ending game of highs and lows. Guess what: there is a reason behind it and if you know what to look for, you can save a big chunk of cash at the pump.

Patrick De Haan, a GasBuddy gas prices analyst, deconstructs why Michigan is squarely in the middle of so-called “price cycling.” Essentially, gas stations across the state are always fighting to be the cheapest price, and then cue card-style jack them right back up again. This back-and-forth price dance of dropping and increasing has been going on for roughly 25 years, and surprisingly, it can actually be to your advantage.

So, how does it work?

Consider two gas stations on different sides of the same road. One of them lowers prices in order to attract more customers. Naturally, the other one emulates and reduces its price as well, so it doesn’t lag behind. That tit-for-tat goes on and on for a week or so, and prices are reduced and reduced. Then, sooner or later, stations start selling gas at or even below cost and that’s where things start to diverge.

“When the prices fall to alarmingly low levels, one station will suddenly jack up its price substantially higher,” De Haan says. And if that first station jumps, the rest soon follow. It’s a reset that ignites the start of another cycle of gas-price-cutting price wars. De Haan offers that if you see prices fall to 30 to 35 cents a gallon from their peak, it’s an enormous red flag a shock price jump is coming.

This cycle of resetting prices occurs every one to two weeks and is particularly noticeable in the spring. Why spring? Refineries are performing maintenance work during that period and begin to transition production from winter-grade gasoline to the more costly summer blend. These seasonal considerations contribute to the effect of cycling and render gas prices even more unstable.

And the good news of all, here’s the good news: this price cycle can save you money if you can play the game. The Federal Trade Commission even studied the phenomenon and discovered that states where price cycling is common have lower average gas prices than states where prices do not cycle.

“If you look at the timing, you’ll be paying less than drivers in non-cycling states,” de Haan says.

So what do you, as a motorist, do then?

Timing is crucial. De Haan advises against filling up when you notice prices springing up. Wait for about a week. That is typically when the constant and gradual drops begin to function again. Putting some attention to the price movements waiting patiently, at least to a certain degree can save you huge amounts of money over the long term.

Here’s a useful rule of thumb to keep in mind:
When you see a huge price increase, mark your calendar. Within seven to ten days, prices will start to decline. That’s your cue to fuel up your tank.

Yes, it does require some concentration and maybe even a good deal of planning. But then, once you’re actually in the midst of it, you’ll discover you can pretty much count on the cycle. And given how volatile the cost of living is these days, having some degree of control over how much you’ll be spending at the pump doesn’t sound so disenfranchising.

And here’s another useful tip? Apps such as GasBuddy will alert you when prices start creeping back up again where you are so that you can make even better decisions. Being attentive could make all the difference between having to spend an extra $5 to $10 on every gas fill-up.

It’s also fascinating that while price cycling is most common in Michigan, there are comparable patterns in parts of Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. But Michigan is still a hotspot and that makes area drivers a beneficiary if they’re willing to stay alert.

Short and sweet, even though the price cycling mechanism might seem infuriating at first glance, it’s actually a sneaky blessing for smart drivers. Paying attention to when the cycle is reset, waiting for the slow price drops, and timing your fill-ups carefully can stretch your gas money a whole lot further.

So the next time you see the gas prices jump through the roof here in Michigan, worry not – just smile, leave a note on your calendar, and sit back and enjoy the benefit of the saving one week later. Timing is everything in the game of gas prices in the Great Lakes State!